MOdeling COronavirus Spread in the Philippines

A Filipino-German-Polish Research Group initiative

Welcome to MOCOS Philippines!

About

In order to gain information that can be valuable in predicting the spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), and provide such information to stakeholders and policy-makers from the City Government of Iligan, the Mindanao State University-Iligan Institute of Technology (MSU-IIT) MOdeling COronavirus Spread (MOCOS) Team is created through a Special Order (No. 00707-IIT, Series of 2020) issued by Chancellor Sukarno D. Tanggol, DPA on April 8, 2020.

The MSU-IIT MOCOS Team shall run computer simulations of the spread of the virus using an agent-based model, where the disease progression of the virus is modeled via individual contacts. The key ingredient is the synthetic population with actual household and age structure generated from the census data of the cities and regions of the country.

The team can be reached at this email or like us on Facebook.

ILIGAN CITY COVID-19 SITUATIONER: MARCH 16 - AUGUST 30, 2020

This is a situationer of the COVID-19 progression in Iligan City from March 16 to August 30, 2020, based on daily briefer by the Iligan City Health Emergency Management Surveillance Unit.

• Increases in the daily reported cases are observed as mitigation strategies are eased from ECQ to GCQ then to MGCQ. A surge in the cases is observed during the MGCQ period, when LSIs/ROFs were allowed to come back, essential and some non essential businesses were continued to operate, some social and religious activities were allowed, yet under a restricted scheme as specified by the guidelines set by AITF-EID for areas under MGCQ.

• The daily median incidence was 0 before July 9th, when the first local transmission was reported, and increased to 3 after that time, with a weekly average of 12 cases from March 16 to August 30, 2020.

• The largest weekly increase in the incidence of COVID-19 is at 450% from 2 cases on June 24 to June 30, to 11 cases on July 1 to 7, 2020.

• The first local transmission was reported last July 9, 2020, a week after 11 LSIs were reported COVID-19 positive, a peak in the number of LSIs/ROFs active cases. From March 26 to July 31, 54 out of 58 cases were contributed by LSIs/ROFs.

• There seems to be 2 important events. One within the period June 23 to Jul 21, and possibly superspreading events from July 21 onwards, as depicted by the increasing trend during this period. It should be noted that the days with 0 cases may mean that there are no reported cases during that time due possibly to delays in testing results. The weekly median is 27 cases from July 9 onwards, compared to a weekly median of 1 prior to the event of the first local transmission. The highest daily incidence is at 21 active cases reported on August 25.

• The month of August ended in a total of 312 active cases with 236 local transmissions and 76 LSIs/ROFs.

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