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Is Mass Testing the Best COVID-19 Pandemic Response?

MOCOS simulations indicate that testing alone does not end the pandemic!

To see this, the MOCOS Team investigated some scenarios combining testing and social distancing for Cagayan de Oro City, Philippines. The simulations are based on the household structure of the city and on its recorded population of 675,950.

Neither testing nor social distancing on its own is sufficient to end the epidemic. The lower right corner of the region of the heat map indicates that at least 67% of the population will still be infected even if 100% of the population is tested but no social distancing is enforced. While the upper right corner region shows that more than 95% of Cagayan de Oro is expected to be infected if no testing and social distancing are implemented.

A combination of both testing and social distancing measures has to be used to keep the epidemic on a level by which the health system can handle. The better the testing capacity is, the higher is the detection rate for mild cases. The dark blue regions of the heat map are suggested combinations of social distancing and testing strategies to eradicate the infection. At 100% detection rate, meaning that all mild cases are detected 2 days after the onset of symptoms, social distancing can be relaxed up to 40%, that is social contacts are decreased to 4 if on the average one has 10 regular contacts.

Thus, with an effective testing strategy, social distancing measures may be relaxed! Perhaps, in the near future, the community can go back to the “old” normal...see some friends face to face, go malling, take some leisure, among others. But then without testing, infections from infected persons with mild symptoms or more likely from those who are asymptomatic cannot be avoided. So, the whole household becomes vulnerable to the infection. A small number of contacts from one household to another could even make the disease overcritical, that is, the healthcare system can be overwhelmed at some point. Thus, to get this household-to-household spread under control, social distancing must be maintained, with massive testing implementation, and if possible, backtracking of infection chains with quarantine.

For now, what can be done then is to accept the “new” normal, to wit, maintain social distance, enjoy the new fashion with the mask as a new addition to the trend, stay healthy and fit, and heed the government’s call...“Bahay muna - unti-unti, dahan-dahan, hinay-hinay”.